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Next Prime Minister Odds – Betting on the Next UK General Election

Liam Austen-Rondi
Liam Austen-Rondi
Senior Betting Writer
Updated: 29 September 2026

This guide is for readers who want to understand the betting markets on who will next occupy Number 10. The page sets out published odds from UK bookmakers on the contenders who were tipped to become Prime Minister around the July 2024 general election, which Labour won under Keir Starmer; Starmer later resigned as Labour leader in 2026 and Andy Burnham has been Prime Minister since 20 July 2026. We look at how prices varied across candidates, from the favourites to the outsiders, and explain what the numbers mean. Odds move constantly and there is no general election scheduled for 2026; the next one is not due until on or before 15 August 2029 unless called earlier, so figures here reflect a single point in time and are historical rather than current.

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Next Prime Minister Betting Odds (2024 Historical Snapshot)

During the run-up to the 4 July 2024 general election, bookmakers regularly revised their odds on the next UK Prime Minister. At that time, the market was focused mainly on the Labour Party’s Keir Starmer and the Conservative Party’s Rishi Sunak; Labour went on to win, and Starmer became Prime Minister on 5 July 2024. Starmer later resigned as Labour leader in 2026, and Andy Burnham has been Prime Minister since 20 July 2026. The table below shows a historical snapshot of odds recorded from major UK bookmakers for a dozen of the most widely quoted candidates to take over at 10 Downing Street at that time. These prices changed as political circumstances changed, and the figures shown are now well out of date; there is no general election scheduled for 2026, and the next one must be held on or before 15 August 2029 unless called earlier.

Candidate Party Typical Odds
Keir Starmer Labour 1/200
Nigel Farage Reform UK 33/1
Rishi Sunak Conservative 50/1

*Odds correct as of 09:00, 02/07/2024, shortly before the 4 July 2024 general election that Labour went on to win; this table is a historical snapshot rather than current pricing. Betting odds on new prime minister contenders are subject to change, and up-to-date odds should always be checked directly with bookmakers.

About the 2024 General Election

The 4 July 2024 general election marked a turning point in British politics. After 14 years of Conservative rule, the Labour Party returned to power under the leadership of Keir Starmer, who became Prime Minister on 5 July 2024. The Conservatives had several prime ministers since the departure of Boris Johnson, with Rishi Sunak in office at the time of the election before his party lost. Starmer himself later resigned as Labour leader in 2026 after heavy losses in the May 2026 local elections, and Andy Burnham has been Prime Minister since 20 July 2026. Key issues likely to dominate the campaign include the cost of living crisis, the state of the NHS, and immigration.

Under the UK parliamentary system, voters elect 650 Members of Parliament (MPs) to the House of Commons. The party that secures an outright majority of 326 seats forms the new government, with its leader becoming the next Prime Minister. If no party achieves a majority, the result is a hung parliament and parties must negotiate to build a coalition or governing agreement.

The election had been expected towards the end of 2024, and had to be held before January 2025 at the very latest. However, Rishi Sunak announced that it would be held on July 4th – sooner than many had anticipated. Odds on the various prime ministerial hopefuls changed frequently during the run-up to the vote.

Any UK, Irish or qualifying Commonwealth citizen who is 18 or over on election day can vote, as long as they are registered. In recent UK general elections, turnout has generally stayed within the 65-70% range (see the House of Commons library’s Turnout at Elections report).

Candidates for New Prime Minister

Ahead of the 2024 general election, the field of potential candidates to be the next occupant of Number 10 included both seasoned political veterans and some up-and-coming faces; Labour’s Keir Starmer went on to win and later gave way to Andy Burnham as Prime Minister in July 2026. For context on UK election betting markets, here is a historical overview of the main contenders’ strengths, weaknesses and how they were priced as that campaign progressed:

Keir Starmer

Sir Keir Starmer took over as Labour leader after the party’s bruising defeat in the 2019 election. A former Director of Public Prosecutions, Starmer has earned praise for his scrutiny of the government at PMQs. However, critics argue he lacks charisma and has struggled to articulate a clear vision for Labour. Starmer’s strategy appears to be positioning Labour as a competent, moderate alternative to the Tories. If he maintains message discipline and keeps his party’s left flank in check in the run-up to July, commentators see him as well placed to become PM. He has consistently been the shortest-priced name in the next prime minister odds, though odds reflect bookmakers’ assessments rather than certainties. He went on to win the 4 July 2024 election and became Prime Minister on 5 July 2024, before resigning as Labour leader in 2026 after heavy local election losses; Andy Burnham has been Prime Minister since 20 July 2026.

Rishi Sunak

As Prime Minister ahead of the 2024 election, Rishi Sunak fought to secure the Conservatives a historic fifth term in power. He won plaudits for his steady handling of the economy as Chancellor during the pandemic. But Sunak’s wealthy background and tax controversies had led to charges that he was out of touch with ordinary voters. His biggest asset was seen as his communication skills, but Sunak was unable to convince enough voters of his vision of low-tax, pro-growth conservatism, and the Conservatives lost the July 2024 election to Labour under Keir Starmer.

Penny Mordaunt

Trade Minister Penny Mordaunt came close to beating Rishi Sunak in the contest to succeed Boris Johnson. Pitching herself as a fresh face untainted by scandals, the Brexiteer and Royal Navy reservist enjoyed strong grassroots support. Ahead of the 2024 election, commentators suggested she would need to build her public profile and prove she had the experience for the top job to reach Number 10. Mordaunt was generally priced as an outsider in these markets, and in the event the Conservatives lost the 2024 election to Labour under Keir Starmer, with neither Mordaunt nor Sunak becoming Prime Minister.

Andy Burnham

Greater Manchester mayor and former Labour cabinet minister Andy Burnham had repeatedly denied, ahead of the 2024 election, that he was angling to succeed Starmer, though persistent rumours suggested he could launch a leadership challenge if Labour’s position weakened. The affable Burnham ticked a lot of boxes: a northerner who had held senior posts while avoiding Westminster intrigue. Doubts about whether he had the killer instinct to rise to the very top proved unfounded: after Starmer resigned as Labour leader in 2026 following heavy losses in the May 2026 local elections, Burnham won the resulting Labour leadership election and was appointed Prime Minister on 20 July 2026.

Jeremy Hunt

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt became the reassuring public face of the Sunak government’s economic agenda ahead of the 2024 election. By exuding calm competence in a time of turmoil, he earned the “safe pair of hands” title once bestowed on him as Health Secretary. Hunt’s most plausible route to becoming PM was seen as delivering tangible economic improvements as Chancellor and stepping in as a unity candidate if Sunak faltered, but daunting headwinds ultimately denied him that opportunity, and the Conservatives lost office to Labour in July 2024.

Houses of Parliament in the UK

UK General Election Betting Markets

Alongside markets on the next Prime Minister, bookmakers price a wide range of other outcomes related to the general election. From the number of seats each party will win to the identity of the next Chancellor, political betting sites list odds on most aspects of the vote. Some of the more widely offered UK general election betting markets are outlined below.

Most Seats

The “most seats” market is among the more straightforward markets in UK election betting. Rather than concerning the overall winner, it relates to which party will secure the largest number of MPs. It is a separate question from who forms a government, which matters in a hung parliament, where the party with the most seats may not necessarily end up in office.

Overall Majority

This market concerns whether the election produces a decisive result or a hung parliament. Bookmakers price odds on whether any party will secure the 326 seats needed for an outright Commons majority. Related markets include the exact seat totals for each party, or over/under wagers on a specified number of seats.

Prime Minister After Election

Betting on the next Prime Minister is described above, but there is also a more specific market on who will be PM immediately following the election. This accounts for the possibility that the current PM could win the most seats but lose their own constituency, or that a lesser-known figure might emerge as a compromise choice after a hung parliament.

Constituency Betting

For those who follow every twist and turn of the campaign, constituency betting covers individual seats. Odds are listed on the winner of any single constituency, and separate prices are sometimes offered on high-profile races such as the Prime Minister’s seat. It is worth noting that boundary changes have altered the electoral maths in certain areas.

Turnout Percentage

Will voters flock to the polls or stay home on election day? The turnout percentage market covers the exact figure, with over/under options also available. Turnout for recent UK general elections has ranged from a high of 77.7% in 1992 to a low of 59.1% in 2001. Weather, the closeness of the race, and the perceived importance of key issues can all influence turnout, and in turn how markets such as next prime minister are priced.

Prime Minister Betting Tips

Betting on political outcomes like the odds on new Prime Minister can be a fun way to add excitement to the campaign season. But it's important to approach these wagers with a clear strategy in mind. Here are a few tips to help you make smart bets and hopefully turn a profit.

  1. Follow the Polls, But Don't Fixate

    Opinion polls are a useful gauge of the political mood, but they're not always reliable predictors of election results. Pay attention to the overall trend in Prime Minister polling when trying some UK election betting, but don't overreact to individual surveys, especially early in the campaign. Pollsters may adjust their methodologies as the election approaches, so the numbers can shift.

  2. Consider the Electoral Map

    The UK's first-past-the-post electoral system means that a party's vote share doesn't always translate into an equivalent number of parliamentary seats. When assessing a potential Prime Minister's chances, look at where their party is competitive and how many marginal constituencies they're targeting. A surge in national support won't help if it's concentrated in safe seats.

  3. Evaluate the Candidates' Strengths and Weaknesses

    Winning a general election requires a leader who can connect with voters, handle media scrutiny, and rally their party behind a coherent message. As you’re betting next prime minister, consider their communication skills, campaign organisation, and ability to unite disparate factions. Perceived weakness in any of these areas could undermine their chances.

  4. Look for Value in Longshots

    While the betting odds tend to favour the leaders of the main parties, upsets can happen. If you sense that public opinion is shifting away from the favourites, don't be afraid to take a chance on a longshot candidate. Just be sure to balance your risk by also placing safer bets. A small wager on an underdog could pay off big if your hunch proves correct.

  5. Keep an Eye on the Pound

    Certain events may trigger a sudden increase in the number of bets placed on the next PM outcome. For example, a scandal or a perceived success can make bettors think a particular candidate is suddenly more or less likely to win. Bookmakers adjust their odds to maintain their profits amidst these swings in demand and perception. So if you see odds shifting, look at what's happening in the news to understand why.

2024 General Election TV Coverage

Election night developments are covered by the BBC, ITV and Sky News, each broadcasting live reports, analysis and interviews with key figures. BBC Parliament shows the raw constituency results feeds.

Coverage is also streamed online through news websites, mobile apps and services such as BBC iPlayer and ITV Hub. The UK Parliament website carries a real-time results tally. Many bookmakers list live odds on new prime minister contenders alongside interactive mapping tools, though high traffic can affect the performance of online betting platforms.

Previous UK Prime Ministers

Recent political history provides context for markets on the next occupant of 10 Downing Street. The table below lists 15 Prime Ministers up to and including Rishi Sunak, along with their political parties and dates in office; Sunak was succeeded by Keir Starmer on 5 July 2024, who was in turn succeeded by Andy Burnham on 20 July 2026, the current Prime Minister. This period spans over 40 years and includes several figures who reshaped Britain’s political and economic landscape.

Prime Minister Party Dates in Office
Rishi Sunak Conservative 2022-2024
Liz Truss Conservative 2022
Boris Johnson Conservative 2019-2022
Theresa May Conservative 2016-2019
David Cameron Conservative 2010-2016
Gordon Brown Labour 2007-2010
Tony Blair Labour 1997-2007
John Major Conservative 1990-1997
Margaret Thatcher Conservative 1979-1990
James Callaghan Labour 1976-1979
Harold Wilson Labour 1974-1976
Edward Heath Conservative 1970-1974
Harold Wilson Labour 1964-1970
Alec Douglas-Home Conservative 1963-1964
Harold Macmillan Conservative 1957-1963

Summary

General election markets are shaped by candidates, polling and shifting odds, and outcomes remain uncertain however closely the campaign is followed. Political betting carries a risk of losing money and is not a way to generate income. Anyone who does take part should gamble responsibly and only with money they can afford to lose; free, confidential support is available from GamCare. The information in this guide is intended to explain how these markets work, including those covering the next resident of 10 Downing Street.

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Liam Austen-Rondi
Liam Austen-Rondi
Senior Betting Writer

Liam Austen-Rondi is a seasoned writer in the sports betting and gambling industry. After starting his career writing SEO content, Liam moved into copywriting roles with Bally's Interactive, where he spearheaded major rebranding and tone of voice projects and helped launch award-winning websites, as well as with industry-leading PR and marketing agencies. Joining Safestbettingsites.co.uk in 2024 armed with a wealth of knowledge and a passion for responsible gambling, Liam provides insightful perspectives on safe and enjoyable betting.

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